Science 7 August 2009: Vol. 325. no. 5941, pp. 675 - 676 DOI: 10.1126/science.325_675

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Letters

China Fights Against Statistical Corruption

Particularly in the current financial crisis, many countries rely on statistics released by the Chinese government for production and trade of bulk commodities, exchange rates, and economic stimulus. However, the credibility of China's statistics has long been questioned. On 1 May, a new regulation, Rules on Punishment for Violation of Laws in Statistics, was put in effect by the Ministry of Supervision, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and the National Bureau of Statistics (1).

Statistical corruption has been found in China for years, largely for two reasons. First, economic growth is a key factor determining the promotion of government officials. Statistical data and numbers are regarded as a reflection of economic growth, which is used to evaluate the performance of the officials. This is the so-called "numbers make leaders" phenomenon ("shu zi chu guan" in Chinese). Second, the statistical organizations are not independent entities in China. They are a part of the government and hence are vulnerable to government interference. Without specific laws and regulations to punish statistical corruption, government leaders can intervene in statistical reporting with low political risks. They may tailor statistics for different purposes, such as inflating statistical numbers that indicate economic achievements and decreasing statistical numbers for environmental pollution and damage (2). This is the so-called "leaders make numbers" phenomenon ("guan chu shu zi" in Chinese).

The previous Statistics Law in China has been in effect since 1983, but it was too vague to enforce. Although it stated the penalty for illegal acts, the law did not clearly specify the types of the illegal acts and the extent to which penalties should be imposed. In contrast, the new regulation lists four types of statistics cheating: revising statistics without permission, or making up statistics; forcing or ordering statistics departments or individuals to revise or make up statistics or refuse to report statistics; retaliation against individuals who refuse to issue false statistics; and retaliation against individuals who report statistics violations (3). The degree of punishment depends on consequences of the violations, and the punishments include a warning, recording a demerit, or even removing officials from their positions.

The new regulation is an important step in the fight against statistical corruption in China. Nevertheless, to eradicate illegal acts in statistical work, further actions are needed, such as reform of the evaluation system for officials and the establishment of independent statistical organizations. Without progress in these areas, the goal of an 8% GDP growth rate for 2009 announced by the Chinese government could be merely another number created by leaders.

Junguo Liu^1,* and Hong Yang²

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: water21water@yahoo.com

¹ School of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
² Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland.

• 1. Xinhua News Agency, "Rules on punishment for violation of laws in statistics" (Xinhua News Agency News, 2009); http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2009-04/28/content_11275709.htm).
• 2. H. Yang, K. C. Abbaspour, Desalination 212, 238 (2007). [CrossRef] [Web of Science]
• 3. Ministry of Supervision, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, National Bureau of Statistics, Rules on Punishment for Violation of Laws in Statistics (Order No. 18, 2009); www.stats.gov.cn/tjfg/gz/t20090428_402555151.htm.